‘Poundstone draws on extensive research to show the roots of our predictability… a fascinating read.’
How to Predict the Unpredictable
The Art of Outsmarting Almost EveryoneWilliam Poundstone
We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase ‘winning streaks’ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be.
In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase ‘representativeness’ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You’ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.
'Poundstone is a smart thinker, a deft writer and a spinner of engaging tales… enjoyable and original’
'Ingenious... a delightful addition to the everything-you-thought-you-knew-is-wrong genre.'
'Intriguing and immensely useful.'